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Q4 2025 Market Update & 2026 Predictions | Brendan Ecker Insights|From an Investor and REALTOR®


Q4 2025 Real Estate Market Update and Predictions for 2026 Insights from an Investor and REALTOR®
Bloomfield Hills Luxury Living: Brendan Ecker's Market Update Highlights Stunning Real Estate Opportunities with Keller Williams Lakeside and DET Properties.

Q4 2025 Real Estate Market Update & 2026 Outlook


Hi reader, I’m Brendan Scott Ecker, REALTOR® with Keller Williams Lakeside, Founder of Gold Shark Media AI, and Creator of the PassRE Real Estate State Exam Prep. My background is a bit non-traditional for real estate: I came up through experience as a police officer, being a former NCAA athlete, holding a criminology degree, and an early investor in Bitcoin and XRP, among other digital assets. Bringing a varied lens of investing, finance, risk, discipline, AI, and technology to real estate gives me a unique vantage.


In this blog I’ll walk you through where we stand in Q4 2025, what to expect as we move into 2026, especially here in Michigan but also nationwide for luxury, commercial and residential markets, and what investors, first-time buyers, sellers, commercial operators, contractors, PE/VC folks should know. I’ll also highlight legal/regulatory/geopolitical issues affecting real estate, and wrap with how we can work together (whether you’re buying, selling, investing, or using our AI/CRM tools).


Michigan Lakefront Properties in Grosse Pointe, Michigan | Keller Williams Lakeside | Brendan Ecker Realty


My Background & Why It Matters


Before diving into market details, a quick word about my journey, so you understand the lens I bring:


As an early investor in Bitcoin and XRP since 2016 when Trump was first elected, I learned the power of disruptive technology, the importance of timing, risk management and diversification. As a police officer, I developed discipline, an analytical mindset, ability to assess risk and read environments (valuable in real estate and business).


As a former NCAA athlete who played football and baseball at The University of Olivet, I learned how to better focus my skillset in leadership, teamwork, hustle, preparation, and the long-game. My criminology and law enforcement administration degree sharpened my interest in psychology, systems, policy, criminal law and procedure, and behavioural analysis. My limited journalism experience allows me to interpret data, geopolitical trends, global economy, international affairs, regulatory shifts, and strategic implications in finance and business development and applications.


Now, with Keller Williams Lakeside I represent luxury, commercial and residential clients; through Gold Shark Media AI and PassRE USA Real Estate Exam Prep, I build technology platforms to support real estate professionals and investors mathematically scale to 8 figure brands and beyond.


This unique mix of skills means I look not just at listing price and comps, but at policy, macro-economics, technology, and investor strategy. I focus on the details most miss without the expertise and experience. I've survived both bull markets and bear markets, investing in FIAT, Forex, Bitcoin, and XRP. So let’s use that lens on Q4 2025 and beyond.


Q4 2025 Market Snapshot: The Breakdown


Homes for Sale in Oakland County and Macomb County, Michigan | Brendan Ecker Realty | Keller Williams Lakeside


Nationally:

The average U.S. home value stands around $363,932 according to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) through September 2025, a modest year-over-year increase of ~0.1%. ([Zillow][1]) Experts expect home-price growth in 2025 to decelerate to roughly 3% or less, in many forecasts. ([JPMorgan Chase][2])


Forecasts diverge: for example, one service projects ~2.7 % average appreciation over 12 months. ([Veros][3])


In the commercial/industrial side, for example, the industrial sector posted the best quarter since Q2 of last year, but development remains cautious and vacancy ticked up slightly. ([JLL][4])


Mortgage rates remain elevated: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and others forecast 30-year fixed rates above ~6% for the foreseeable future. ([New York Post][5])


Sentiment: Buyers remain wary of affordability; sellers face a more balanced market than peak boom years.


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Michigan & Local (Oakland County / Metro Detroit):


The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) All-Transactions House Price Index for Michigan shows Q2 2025 at 562.95 (1980 = 100), up from 542.76 in Q4 2024. ([FRED][6])


Zillow shows average home value in Michigan at ~$258,642 (1-yr +3.0 %). ([Zillow][7])


In southeast Michigan, home prices are projected to rise between ~3-5% in 2025 according to local brokerage projections. ([The Perna Team][8])


In West Michigan, January 2025 average sale price ~$355,314 vs. ~$338,881 last year (~+5 %) and inventory up ~17%. ([Greenridge Realty, Inc.][9])


Predictions for Oakland County suggest continued growth driven by high demand despite headwinds. ([Homes2MoveYou.com][10])


Commercially, Metro Detroit reports show industrial vacancy slowly rising, absorption modest—so commercial real estate is more nuanced. ([Newmark][11])


West Bloofield Hills, Michigan Real Estate | Brendan Ecker Luxury Realty | Keller Williams Lakeside


Buyer & Seller Sentiment:


Buyers face elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and many are sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop.


Sellers in many markets are no longer seeing instant bidding wars widely; the market is shifting toward a more balanced state.


Locally in Michigan—regions with tight inventory (good schools, desirable suburbs) remain seller-advantaged; in secondary/troubled markets, buyers have the edge.



Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?


Nationally: We are moving from a strong seller’s market toward a balanced or slightly seller-tilted/leaning toward buyer leverage depending on region. With more inventory creeping in, slower price growth, elevated rates, buyer leverage is improving.


In Michigan: In desirable suburban markets (Oakland County, West Michigan) it remains somewhat seller-tilted (due to limited supply + strong demand). In more challenged markets (inner Detroit, weaker neighbourhoods) the advantage lies with buyers.



Key Trends & What to Watch Going Into 2026


  1. Mortgage rates & affordability


Sustained elevated rates (~6%+ for 30-year fixed) will continue to constrain buyer purchasing power nationally. ([New York Post][5])


In Michigan, affordability remains better than many coastal markets, which gives Michigan an edge for inbound migration.


For investors: Locking in financing early, structuring cash-flow analysis carefully, considering adjustable-rate strategies or alternate exit plans will matter.


2. Supply & inventory dynamics


New housing starts continue to lag (e.g., Fannie Mae projects housing starts down ~2.7 % in 2025) which supports supply constraints. ([Global Property Guide][12])


Yet resale inventory is gradually improving (some markets seeing year-over-year increases in listings) which gives buyers slightly more choice.


In Michigan, increased inventory in West Michigan (+17% in one report) suggests buyers may see more negotiating room. ([Greenridge Realty, Inc.][9])


3. Regional divergence


The “one-size-fits-all” market has passed. Some markets will grow, some will stagnate or slightly decline. For example, one forecast from Zillow projects U.S. home prices may actually **fall ~1.7%** between March 2025 and March 2026. ([ResiClub][13])

In Michigan: Suburbs, popular migration markets (amenities, remote work friendly) will outperform; weaker markets may flatten or decline slightly.


4. Commercial & industrial real estate shifts


Industrial/warehouse: Moderate leasing growth but development pipeline shrinking; vacancy ticking up slowly. ([JLL][4])


Office: Many legacy office markets still adjusting to hybrid work, conversion trends. For commercial investors, due-diligence around building class, location, tenant strength is critical.


For Michigan: Metro Detroit’s industrial vacancy modestly rising, so buyer/investor leverage is increasing. ([Newmark][11])


5+ Unit Apartment Complexes in Rochester, MI | Brendan Ecker Realty | Keller Williams Realty

5. Legal, regulatory & geopolitical factors


Nationally: Ongoing wars, supply-chain disruptions, inflation risk and fiscal deficits may push rates higher. For instance, the government shutdown threat in flood-prone areas is delaying home closings and adding risk to regional markets. ([Reuters][14])


Regulatory changes: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) antitrust suit (via the Supreme Court) was recently declined, removing one uncertainty. ([Reuters][15])


Michigan specific: New legislation around property taxes, senior downsizing incentives, and migration in from higher-cost states can shift supply/demand. (Local sources highlight Michigan’s attraction for buyers). ([Century Communities][16])


6. Investor & luxury/ commercial behaviour


Institutional investors continue to deploy capital into niche niches: rental housing, multi-family, logistics, secondary markets.


Luxury market: In many high-end metros, price appreciation is muted, but scarcity and amenities maintain premium values.


In Michigan: Luxury suburban/cottage (lakefront) markets remain strong; commercial investors should pay attention to emerging remote-work, hybrid-office and conversion opportunities. This is an important part of taking away the most from this Q4 2025 Market Update & 2026 Predictions | Brendan Ecker.


Outlook for 2026: What I Expect


National home-price growth: Expect modest appreciation of ~2-4% overall, with variation by region. Many forecasts cite 3% or less for 2026. ([BAM - The Key To Thriving in Real Estate][17])


Michigan: I believe the state will outperform the national average modestly—especially in strong suburban and migration markets—perhaps 3-5% appreciation for many markets, while weaker ones may flat-line or dip slightly.


Market type: For many mainstream markets, 2026 will **favor buyers slightly more** than recent years—but in premium/low-supply enclaves and best-in-class commercial assets, sellers/investors will still hold leverage.


For luxury: Excess inventory continues to linger in some luxury markets; but in Michigan’s premium lake-front and high‐amenity suburbs, demand remains strong.


Commercial/industrial: Expect a shift toward quality — newer buildings, best-in-class amenities, adaptive reuse will command premium; secondary/tertiary assets will have more pressure.


Investors: Focus will shift from purely appreciation-driven deals to yield, cash flow, repositioning, technology integration (for example, PropTech, AI analytics—areas I’m passionate about through Gold Shark Media AI/(PassRE)).


Geographic migration: States with affordability, favourable tax/regulatory regimes (including Michigan) will see inflows; coastal markets may see slower growth or flatten.


Technology/regulation: Tools like AI/CRM platforms (PassRE), remote-work dynamics, sustainability/ESG factors will increasingly influence value.


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What Investors, Buyers & Sellers Should Do Now


For Investors (residential rental, multi-family, commercial):


  • Perform stress tests with elevated interest-rates (6%+).


  • Prioritize markets where supply remains constrained and fundamentals strong (job growth, migration).


  • In Michigan, consider Oakland County suburbs, West Michigan, lake-front second homes.


  • For commercial: Look for adaptive reuse opportunities, logistics/industrial in secondary markets, office conversion potential.


  • Use technology platforms (such as PassRE, our Gold Shark Media AI CRM) to track leads, automate workflows, analyze deals, manage investor relations.


For First-Time Home Buyers/Sellers:


Buyers: Get pre-approved, act quickly when you find the right property, and don’t wait indefinitely for rates to hit some mythical low. Affordability is key.


Sellers: Price realistically. In many markets the bidding wars of 2021-22 are over; preparation, presentation, market timing matter more than ever.


In Michigan: For sellers in premier suburbs, you still likely hold leverage if your home is move-in ready and in a desirable location (low crime, good schools, happy communities). For buyers in high-supply categories (entry-level or lower-demand neighborhoods) you may have more negotiation room.

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For Luxury/Commercial Clients:


Luxury: Emphasize differentiation—amenities, views, location, technology, service.


Commercial: Focus on tenant quality, cap-rate conservatism, risk of obsolescence, lease-length, building class.


Use my team at Keller Williams Lakeside plus my tech/CRM platform (Gold Shark Media AI / PassRE) to give you an edge in deal flow, marketing and analysis.


Why Work With Me


  • With my multi-discipline background (athlete, police officer, journalist, investor), I bring a unique mindset: data‐driven, disciplined, opportunistic.


  • At Keller Williams Lakeside, I serve luxury, commercial and residential clients across Michigan and across the U.S.


  • Through Gold Shark Media AI and PassRE, I provide clients and fellow agents access to advanced lead-management, analytics, deal-flow tools and marketing automation.


  • Whether you’re buying a lake-front luxury home in Oakland County, investing in a commercial warehouse in Detroit, or entering a first-time home in suburban Michigan, I can guide you—and layer in technology to maximize outcomes.


  • Let’s connect for any of the following: luxury & residential real estate, commercial investment real estate, real estate technology/CRM tools, business & real-estate strategy.



Final Takeaways


  • We are not in boom-mode but in a transition phase: the seller’s market dominance is easing in many regions, especially for mainstream homes.


  • In Michigan—and especially in strong suburban or amenity-rich markets—opportunities persist.


  • For 2026 look for modest single-digit appreciation, more balanced markets, and increasing opportunity for buyers/investors who are prepared and strategic.


  • Macro factors—mortgage rates, inventory, regional divergence, regulatory shift, technology—will drive winners and losers.


  • My key advice: move from speculation (“will home prices skyrocket?”) to strategy (“which markets, which asset classes, which tools, which exit?”).


  • And remember: whether you are buying a first home, selling a luxury property, investing in commercial real estate—or deploying CRM/AI tools through PassRE—I’m here to partner with you.


Let’s talk about your real estate ambitions for 2025-26. Reach out any time for a confidential consultation and let’s turn strategy into action.



Brendan Scott Ecker

REALTOR® | Keller Williams Lakeside


Connect with me today for all things real estate, investment, luxury, commercial and tech-enabled.


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